Oh... Iran.

Iran. It was famously dubbed a member of the of the “Axis of Evil” by former US President George W. Bush Jr. and now is under fire from much of the world for its nuclear program. Sanctions have been threatened by the US and the EU against Iran’s oil and financial sectors and in response, Iran’s Vice-President threatened to close the vital Strait of Hormuz, through which more than a third of the world’s tanker-borne oil is taken. Iran is the world’s fourth-highest oil exporter.

The US and Saudi Arabia have replied to this threat, with a spokeswoman for the US Navy’s 5^th Fleet saying that they would respond to any threat in kind and any attempt to close the passage “would not be tolerated”. Essentially, the US keeps one fleet group on rotation in the area to allow the free transport of oil, which makes sense considering the amount it imports. Saudi Arabia has said that it will match any decrease in oil supply, although it hasn’t mentioned how it will transport it, leading some analysts to doubt the weight of this statement. Oil prices, which had risen in response to the Iranian threat, have now fallen in response to the Saudi Arabian counter-statement.

What’s worrying is that this comes at the same time as an Iranian naval exercise, codenamed Velayat 90 that has Iranian troops at high readiness. Interestingly, the Iranians also recently unveiled a new anti-ship cruise missile, Qader. With a range of 200 kilometres, that would be an effective tool to help close the strait.

The whole controversy follows after a report in the Daily Beast cited an American report saying that the Obama administration had certain “red lines” concerning Tehran’s nuclear program that would facilitate the necessity of a military strike. The Americans are also trying to extract a guarantee from the Israelis not to attack unilaterally, but Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government has been rather elusive on this matter.

As Obama's first term comes to an end, Iran is feeling the pain of sanctions but continuing to enrich uranium to ever higher percentages of the isotope needed for nuclear weapons. U.S. influence in the region as a whole is on the wane as a result of political upheaval in the Arab world. Iran is also losing clout as Arabs search for new models of governance and Iran is tainted by its support of Syria's brutal dictatorship.

This could possibly lead to the Iranians taking a desperate new step in order to revitalize their appeal amongst the Middle East, though should it go too far, it will only push them further away.

“As Iranians say, it will be easier than drinking a glass of water"

-Iranian Navy Chief Habibollah Sayyari on closing the Strait of Hormuz