Syrian Update; is intervention around the corner?

A brief update on the Syrian situation; the embattled district of Baba Amr in the city of Homs has been recaptured by Syrian government forces, who have been “entering homes and setting them on fire”, according to activist Bassel Fouad. Trucks of dead bodies have been seen leaving the city, with Sunday Times photographer Paul Conroy saying that this “was systematic slaughter”. A Red Cross convoy was also denied access.

Males over 11 have been rounded up in waves of mass arrest and many analysts have begun drawing comparisons to Rwanda and Srebrenica. The UN also came down heavily on the Syrian government. This blogger is certainly hoping for a swift resolution to this crisis, whether in the form of free and fair elections (when pigs fly) or UN/AU intervention (increasingly likely).

The common refrain heard around the globe these days; why isn’t anyone doing anything? Arguably, the situation in Syria is far worse than it was in Libya, and thus arguably, it should be easier to drum up support for an international intervention. Unfortunately, the Syrian freedom movement is fragmented and weak, a clear difference from the Libyan National Transitional Council. The harsh reality of things is that if the outside world wants to intervene, they will need to assist with formation of a provisional government and transition of power; and for that, coalition forces will be needed, creating a situation potentially magnitudes worse than the one faced in resolving Iraq. An air and sea campaign without ‘boots on the ground’ does not appear to be a tenable strategy as of yet; and that remains the threshold of involvement that most countries are willing to stomach.

Another interesting factor that may play a role is China’s changing political climate (and leadership). China’s continued policy has been to block assertive resolutions in the Security Council; a change of which may allow UN Security Council action. It remains to be seen how much China’s policies will change with the ushering of the new guard of the Communist Party in an almost instantaneous 60% change of the 350-member Central Committee of the Party. More on that in my next post, but for now, back to Syria.

What’s being heard increasingly in Syria is that “people don't care about pro-Assad, anti-Assad; they just want to eat.” An incredible 60% of Syrians are under 25 years old. As the BBC puts it; “they want a better life, of the kind that they see on Facebook and on cable TV.”

Syria’s porous borders with Iraq certainly are worrying, with many believing that militants from Iraq might make home in the embattled Syrian state, though both the government and the rebels have proved to be disapproving of terrorists, though some would argue that the government itself has qualified as a terrorist organization.

    “Continued division emboldens the Syrian authorities in their violent path. The disproportionate use of force by Syrian authorities has driven what had been largely peaceful opposition forces to resort to take up arms in some cases.”

-Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in an address to the UN General Assembly