Human Trafficking in East Asia

This article can also be found at http://www.foreignpolicyjournal.com/2012/07/25/human-trafficking-in-east-asia/

Nightmare or exaggeration; what’s happening with human trafficking in East Asia?

After decades of high economic growth combined with rapidly escalating population growth and compounded by massive wealth disparity, East Asia is a ticking time-bomb. Low wage rates and a severe lack of government regulation have already seen an influx of foreign wealth desperate to take advantage of the region, causing colossal social upheaval. As a result of that, an increasingly materialistic society seeking more and more has thrown caution to the winds to strive for higher salaries and a better standard of living, putting them at risk of being exploited.

Migration in Asia has always been a complex and politically sensitive issue, but in recent times it has shot to unprecedented levels. Interestingly, reports estimate that 30% to 40% of this is unregulated traffic. It is unclear how much of this migration flow is human trafficking, but it is clear that at the very least, a significant portion of it is.

Traditionally, migration in East Asia; whether illegal or legal, represented the shift of unskilled male workers. In the 1990’s, we began to see a shift towards a higher proportion of female workers, particularly seeking employment in the domestic sector.

An amplification in the demand for domestic servants in developed countries combined with unemployment of women in developing countries has seen the growth of entire organized crime gangs devoted to fulfilling this need, albeit illegally. This, in my opinion, is one of the most pressing issues of the matter at hand, particularly since the proceeds of criminal enterprise in human trafficking is quickly used to fund the entire gamut of organized criminal operations, including illegal arms purchases, drugs, and perhaps even terrorism. In addition to this, the human capital exploited in trafficking is used as cheap labour, whether in sweatshops, factories or even brothels. In fact, according to the United Nations Office of Drugs and Crime (UNODC), sexual exploitation is the “most commonly-identified form of human trafficking.”

This was part of a landmark report released by UNODC, which had several important findings, but two areas of concern that I felt deserved attention. Firstly, UNODC discovered that “most trafficking is national or regional and is carried out by people whose nationality is the same as that of the victims.” This shows that local criminal organizations are as much to blame as ‘international’ organizations.

Another of UNODC’s conclusions was that whilst convictions were increasing, the number of criminals escaping the law, particularly amongst the top echelon, remains disproportionately high. This is worrying, because the majority of those arrested are so-called ‘foot-soldiers’, lowly-paid thugs who, though performing the majority of the basic tasks of the trafficking ring, are easily replaced.  It is their bosses, those with international contacts and multiple transport operations, that need to be targeted. Until it can be shown that there are significant risks currently not apparent to those on the top of these criminal trafficking organizations, international efforts to combat this menace will remain ineffective. As academic Jun JH Lee acidly remarks, “The routes, destinations, and modes of trafficking are fairly well known and stories of corruption among public officials and local authorities are common.” It’s widespread knowledge now that excessive demand is driving trafficking,

Let’s look at the root of the problem; the necessity for human beings. Often, institutions or institutional regulations are the cause. Consider the one-child policy in China that has lead to a skewed gender ratio. Because of this, brides are ‘sold’ for a premium across China. This situation presents issues for law enforcement agencies. The difficulties of separating trafficking from other forms of migration are highly problematic, particularly since bride ‘selling’ is a traditional practice, and participants can range from the willing to the coerced.

Is the media and research attention devoted to the ‘demand’ side of trafficking (particularly in South Korea and Japan) deserved?  Considering that both the aforementioned countries have laws that do not allow unskilled foreigners to stay for even a short period of time, despite the critical shortage of labour, I’d say that the attention is certainly merited. New legislation that works to address this severe dearth of labour within a legal framework needs to be implemented.

Additionally, it has been acknowledged (in a US Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, no less) that links exist between serving US soldiers and pimps and bar owners around US bases in East Asia who exploit trafficked women. A reporter even documented that US military police routinely patrol and collect protection from bars and brothels around US bases, particularly in the Philippines, South Korea and Japan. This is yet another example of collusion with criminal groups.

Most countries in East Asia have a visa category for ‘entertainers’ which is often abused to traffic women for sexual exploitation. Worryingly, legislation in Japan and South Korea (the Immigration Control and Refugee Recognition Law and the Departure and Arrival Control Act respectively) impose heavy penalties on migrants overstaying ‘entertainment’ visas, even if they have been coerced into doing so.

Granted, the South Korean national assembly passed in March 2004 a draft law, Prostitution Victims Prevention Act, which heavily criminalizes the acts of intermediaries in the sex industry. Hopefully, this will go some way towards helping the victims.

The relative invisibility of illegal migrants unfortunately limits the legal treatment that they can receive and so governments need to make it a priority to identify and contain these immigrants.

The key to addressing this detestable violation of human rights? Political support. Sure, governments have launched programs and issued laws but the truth is that much of these measures remain mere lip service. The dual problems at the crux of this issue that need to be addressed are the invisibility of illegal migrants and the involvement of organized crime. Human trafficking helps to fund and support other criminal activities. Trafficking plays a cyclical role with organized crime, and we must strike at both to render the world safe.

The Situation in the Caucasus

 This is an article I wrote for Harvard Model United Nations India 2012, and the original article can be found here: http://hmunindia.org/the-situation-in-the-caucasus/

 International espionage, acute violence, and ruthless power-mongering- welcome to the Caucasus.

In one of the world’s most linguistically and culturally diverse regions, chaos still reigns supreme. The state of affairs is certainly very dire in the Caucasus, and as Anna Nemtsova writes for Foreign Policy, the violence “has driven more young men — and increasingly women — to various jihadist groups that aim to establish an Islamic state encompassing the entire North Caucasus.” And that’s without even considering the troubled South Caucasus.

A single stray word is enough to invite a visit from the “shadowy men in camouflage” as Ms. Nemtsova describes.

In the South, recent clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan have killed ten soldiers so far, and it is impalpable as to when the violence might cease. American Secretary of State Hillary Clinton warned that the clashes “could escalate into a much broader conflict” in the Caucasus.

Another frozen conflict in the South Caucasus escalated into full-scale war in August 2008, following a similar series of incidents on the border between Georgia and the self-declared republic of South Ossetia in the first half of 2008. A five-day war “promptly erupted between Georgia and Russia, which has consistently supported the breakaway republic,” Business New Europe’s Clare Nuttall explains.

If the current situation was not alarming in itself, it has begun to emerge that the Caucasus is the latest arena for influence expansion, international espionage, and even a pawn in Russo-American discussions.
Let’s look at the expansion of influence first. In an interesting development for China watchers, one of their largest companies, the Hualing Group, has bought a 90% stake in Georgia’s Basis Bank for $100 million, and plans to invest an additional $400 million in expansion, potentially all across “Central Europe and Asia”, notes the deputy director of the group. This appears to be an attempt to safeguard Hualing’s $100 million investment in lumber, mining and trade in Georgia.

Is the Caucasus set to be the latest battlefield for global influence? This blogger would certainly encourage it. Whilst the rapid inflow of foreign investment may step on some toes, having China, the United States and potentially India fight it out for influence could be the best thing in the world for the Caucasus’ economic rejuvenation. This region is also a focus of international interest because of its immense natural resources reserves. With China having the clear upper-hand in the ‘battle’ for the Pacific, could the US step up for the Caucasus? Unfortunately, according to Ms. Clinton this would not be the case with the current suggested budget cuts. As she explained to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, “We are in a competition for influence with China… and we are losing”. Currently, however the BBC’s Damien McGuinness says that “the region is dependent on US aid, so Washington has much influence.”

Next, let’s look at the latest from the newest theatre of war in the Iranian-Israeli cold war, a bomb was found attached to an Israeli diplomatic car in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi, and bordering oil-rich Azerbaijan had arrested three men accused of plotting to assassinate the Israeli ambassador in Baku. The Israeli government accuses Iran of being behind the attacks – a charge Tehran stoutly denies. As Georgian political analyst Alexander Rondeli puts it, “everyone is using the South Caucasus for this hidden war – no doubt about it”. Mr. Rondeli likens the modern-day Caucasus to Switzerland before World War II- a hotbed of espionage.
The Caucasus, located as it is between Russia, Iran and Turkey is a “strategic crossroads between Iran and the West”, Mr. McGuinness states.

Azerbaijan has historical and cultural ties with Iran, and Georgia had a record 60,000 Iranian tourists visit last year. The other side of the coin is that both countries are eager Western allies, and Azerbaijan is a major stopover point for US troops, supplies and fuel on their way to Afghanistan.

Mr. McGuinness provides a brief explanation of this apparent asynchrony; “torn loyalties are nothing new in the southern Caucasus. For centuries the Russian, Persian and Ottoman empires fought over this beautiful region of mountains higher than the Alps and fertile valleys, home to the world’s first known vineyards. Having Russia to the north and Iran to the south makes this a tough neighbourhood – and it is getting tougher all the time.”

The Russians have also frequently used the position of Azerbaijan in particular to bargain with the Americans, offering the Russian radar station at Qabala in Azerbaijan in exchange for the removal of the American missile defense shield from Europe in 2007. At the time, the Americans did not accept the offer, but recent reconciliation between the two countries may lead to American President Obama putting the offer back on the table.

So what’s next? International bodies attempting to tackle the violence will have to naturally look, in this blogger’s opinion, at socio-economic empowerment. While peacekeeping forces may be necessary, they are a temporary solution at best and a cause for deterioration at worst. In terms of non-state actors, they are far less likely to be able to recruit members if the population at large is happy, and it is clear that happiness, in most forms and definitions, stems from socio-economic (particularly the latter) empowerment.

This is why the recently-created Caucasus Growth Fund has such an important role to play. Targeting small businesses with a strong focus on pan-sector synergy, this $42 million fund is a pioneering step in the right direction. Predominantly important is the fund’s desire to address “gaps in the regional distribution system to help business and commerce develop across Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia”, as Business New Europe’s Molly Corso writes.

As General Marshall of the iconic Marshall Plan once wrote, “Economic stability will lead to political stability”, and I for one certainly hope that to be the case. The Institute for War and Peace Reporting has done a notable job, attempting to construct cross-border dialogue, particularly for professional journalists. It is companies, groups and efforts like these that will pave the way for reconciliation; not politicians and treaties.

In perhaps a rare exception, Georgia’s new Prime Minister, Vano Merabishvili has announced a landmark initiative for the Georgian population. Democracy & Freedom Watch says that the “The four year 20 billion lari (USD 12 billion) plan is called ‘More Benefit to People’ and parliament will approve the seven-page document tomorrow. Its three main areas are unemployment, health-care and agriculture.”

Here’s to hoping they succeed.

Political Change in Europe

Today I'll be looking at the current wave of electoral results sweeping Europe.

So, in a quick summary,  the Greek public chose to vote for anti-bailout parties, expressing their disapproval at austerity measures they see as mainly-German interference.

In Italy, the flamboyant playboy and multi-billionaire, Silvio Berlusconi, resigned and technocrat Mario Monti (full points for having a name that drives the Nintendo world insane) was appointed in his place. Mr. Berlusconi is quite detested by the majority of the Italian public, though whether it is because of his alleged sexual romps with underage women, or his lack of qualms in displaying his wealth, it is hard to tell.

In France, Socialist Francois Hollande won the French Presidency, a role normally considered as one of the most powerful political positions in Europe. And in Spain, Conservatives defeated the ruling Socialists to take charge of a stagnated economy.

Let's talk about the current state of the European Union, before we look at what the changes mean.

In two words, Europe is angry, and its economy? Woeful. In the last quarter of 2011, the Eurozone shrank by 0.3%, and recorded zero growth for the first three months of the year. In this quarter, only the Germans managed to record growth, with all other European economies shrinking, the Greeks by almost 7%! Economists blame this on low consumption and low investment, a result of the deficit reduction policies favoured by the partnership of Chancellor Merkel and former French President Sarkozy (affectionately dubbed 'Merkozy' by Time Magazine).With the election of Mr. Hollande, growth measures look to be the new mode of combating the crisis.

Can Mr. Hollande reverse the slump that France, and Europe, finds itself in? His policies may not prove to be enough, particularly with his proposed 75% tax on millionaire earners; what incentive is there to earn? He has vowed to create jobs, but at what cost? Chancellor Merkel's Germany is fairing far better than the rest of the Eurozone, on the backs of a industrial revival, but can she help the rest of Europe do the same?


In another interesting development, Mr. Hollande arrived in Germany today, and whilst the liberal German daily Sueddeutsche Zeitung acknowledged Mr. Hollande’s promise to challenge Ms. Merkel’s austerity course, to renegotiate the fiscal pact and his plan to show Europe a new way  as a “disguised declaration of war” to the German Chancellor — but predicted that Paris will eventually give in to reality. On the other hand, the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper, warned that Germany and France will have to find a compromise  “because they know a tug of war between Berlin and Paris would bring the euro zone to the brink.”


In Greece, there's talk of splitting from the European Union, and the euro itself. Now, when the EU was formed, this was mooted (by critics) as the way in which the EU would crumble; an international financial crisis would have different effects on different countries, and so the less-effected countries would bail out the more-affected countries, creating anger on both sides, leading to a collapse, a scenario that is eerily similar to the one the EU faces today. The Greek public have voted to reject austerity measures that would come with any EU bailout, and indeed, particularly the British and German public have expressed discontent at having to clean up a mess that they see as somebody else's.


The European Union is at heart, very different from other groups of states. Take the United States, for example. They have a (relatively more) common history, and a degree of unity forged against the British. The EU, on the other hand, has a history of erupting into war, and mutual antipathy.


Does this herald the beginning of the end for the EU? Let's wait and watch.

In my next post, I'll be looking at Al-Qaeda's involvement in the current Syrian crisis.

"France will soon realize that the European fiscal pact isn’t a demonic instrument of torture but a affirmation of the original stability pact."

-Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung newspaper

Rising from the ashes

Sorry everyone, I've been really busy lately with exams, so it's a bit of a relief to sit here and do what I enjoy doing most; figure out what the world's up to.

In the post, I'm going to be looking at the recent killing of a senior Afghan peace negotiator in Kabul, and in the next couple of posts, I'll see what the recent elections in Europe signal for the European Union, and what this means for the rest of the world.

Today in Kabul, Arsala Rahmani, a former Taliban minister, was shot dead. The killing appeared to be a professional matter, with the killer using a silenced gun to deliver a single bullet to Mr. Rahmani's heart. His nephew, who was driving his car, did not realise that he was dead for sometime, apparently.

Now this is rather shocking news, particularly since Mr. Rahmani was a key member of Afghanistan's High Peace Council, which leads Afghan efforts to negotiate a peace deal with the Taliban. The Council's late Chief was killed in a suicide bombing last September. This is a worrying development, as Afghan officials say that not very many other Taliban commanders have expressed interest in joining, and after the latest attack, officials say numbers will reduce even further. If the capital is not safe, then what is?

"Arsala Rahmani was a unique figure because of his background as a Taliban official who joined peace efforts. He was respected by the Afghan administration as well as by many militant figures", says Bilal Sarwary, BBC News.

The Afghan President, Mr. Hamid Karzai, is reported to have regularly consulted Mr. Rahmani on matters pertaining to the Taliban command structure and peace negotiations.

In the light of this killing, however, one begins to look critically at the Peace Council itself. It must be noted that while it has 'converted' a number of low-level, field commanders, it has not been able to make inroads into the higher echelons of the Taliban command structure.

Regardless, Mr. Rahmani's death is a further blow to the peace negotiations, which were suspended in March by the militants. The Taliban has denied responsibility for the killing, which introduces the possibility of another group interested in further violence, being responsible.

"Observers say he will be extremely difficult to replace as there is nobody of his calibre and experience willing or able to get involved."

-BBC Kabul on the death of Mr. Rahmani

Putin; President again?

After keeping Vladimir Putin’s presidential seat warm for the last four years, current Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is set to give it up after a resounding (-ly fraudulent) victory in Russian exit polls held recently. Russian law prevents a President from serving more than two consecutive terms in office, which explains the need for the game of political musical chairs.

Mr. Putin claims that he has won an “open and honest battle”. His campaign chief, Stanislav Govorukhin, described the poll as "the cleanest in Russian history".

Since Russian presidents are elected for six-year terms, theoretically, Mr. Putin could maintain his grip on power till 2018! Since Russian law only has a limit on consecutive terms, Mr. Putin could run again then and should he win, keep the presidency till 2024, after which he will have to (nominally) step down as President, though no one doubts that he will continue to play puppet-master, much as he has done for the last four years.

Now, what does this mean for Russian politics? Clearly it indicates that Mr. Putin will maintain his stranglehold on power for quite some time. Whilst the election results bought out the usual (but indeed disturbing) corruption allegations by opposition parties and anti-government blogger Alexey Navalny, an certain source of complaint highlighted an interesting segment of the population that has grown disenchanted with Mr. Putin; the Communist Party.  Mr. Zyuganov - the leader of the Communist Party who has previously been relatively loyal to Mr. Putin - described the elections as "unfair and unworthy". He went further to say that Mr. Putin "would not be able to rule like he used to".

This sea change in Communist Party policy indicates a troubling lack of support for Putin amongst not only the embittered middle class and intellectuals, but also the proletariat of the Communist Party. The Party has been very content to play the benign opposition, always toeing Mr. Putin’s line, but clearly these biased elections have struck a nerve in Mr. Zyuganov and his ilk.

Opposition parties have planned mass protests in the weeks ahead, and a few candidates have plans to complain to the Electoral Commission, but let’s see how this turns out. If Mr. Putin is able to ensure a smooth transition of power, it’s far more likely that he will be able to serve the rest of his term easily.

In my next couple of posts, I’ll be looking at how foreign policy issues will affect the U.S. Presidential Election, what China’s new growth target means for the world and most importantly, keeping you updated on what’s happening in this world- and why.

Syrian Update; is intervention around the corner?

A brief update on the Syrian situation; the embattled district of Baba Amr in the city of Homs has been recaptured by Syrian government forces, who have been “entering homes and setting them on fire”, according to activist Bassel Fouad. Trucks of dead bodies have been seen leaving the city, with Sunday Times photographer Paul Conroy saying that this “was systematic slaughter”. A Red Cross convoy was also denied access.

Males over 11 have been rounded up in waves of mass arrest and many analysts have begun drawing comparisons to Rwanda and Srebrenica. The UN also came down heavily on the Syrian government. This blogger is certainly hoping for a swift resolution to this crisis, whether in the form of free and fair elections (when pigs fly) or UN/AU intervention (increasingly likely).

The common refrain heard around the globe these days; why isn’t anyone doing anything? Arguably, the situation in Syria is far worse than it was in Libya, and thus arguably, it should be easier to drum up support for an international intervention. Unfortunately, the Syrian freedom movement is fragmented and weak, a clear difference from the Libyan National Transitional Council. The harsh reality of things is that if the outside world wants to intervene, they will need to assist with formation of a provisional government and transition of power; and for that, coalition forces will be needed, creating a situation potentially magnitudes worse than the one faced in resolving Iraq. An air and sea campaign without ‘boots on the ground’ does not appear to be a tenable strategy as of yet; and that remains the threshold of involvement that most countries are willing to stomach.

Another interesting factor that may play a role is China’s changing political climate (and leadership). China’s continued policy has been to block assertive resolutions in the Security Council; a change of which may allow UN Security Council action. It remains to be seen how much China’s policies will change with the ushering of the new guard of the Communist Party in an almost instantaneous 60% change of the 350-member Central Committee of the Party. More on that in my next post, but for now, back to Syria.

What’s being heard increasingly in Syria is that “people don't care about pro-Assad, anti-Assad; they just want to eat.” An incredible 60% of Syrians are under 25 years old. As the BBC puts it; “they want a better life, of the kind that they see on Facebook and on cable TV.”

Syria’s porous borders with Iraq certainly are worrying, with many believing that militants from Iraq might make home in the embattled Syrian state, though both the government and the rebels have proved to be disapproving of terrorists, though some would argue that the government itself has qualified as a terrorist organization.

    “Continued division emboldens the Syrian authorities in their violent path. The disproportionate use of force by Syrian authorities has driven what had been largely peaceful opposition forces to resort to take up arms in some cases.”

-Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon in an address to the UN General Assembly

President al-Assad a comedian? Who knew?

Let’s talk Syria. It’s been in the news regularly, but what has summoned it to the forefront of the international consciousness once again?

Amidst almost unprecedented violence, Syria went into ‘voting’ on a referendum on a new constitution. This is a potentially very nasty piece of legislature that could ensure President Bashir al-Assad clinging onto power till at least 2028- a very long time indeed.

    “From Monday no one will be tortured in Syria. The state will guarantee personal freedom for its citizens and preserve their dignity and security. People's homes will be inviolable. Everyone will have the right to express opinions freely and openly, and the state will guarantee the freedom and independence of the press.”

-President al-Assad on reforms

This blogger is currently debating whether the Syrian President should try for a career in stand-up comedy; his statement certainly proving amusing, particularly as his tanks and soldiers continuing to wage war with “explosions and shooting reported from the east, west, north and south”. #TNREgirl seems to think that it sounds like far too many places; I’m actually tempted to agree.

The Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu brought up a very interesting point when he expressed doubt about the timing of the vote; “On one hand you say you are holding a referendum and on the other you are attacking with tank fire on civilian areas. You still think the people will go to a referendum the next day in the same city?”

Washington has gone on record to slam it as “laughable”, but the news of continued shelling in Homs is anything but. Conservative international estimates put the number of deaths at around 31, whilst Syrian activists say the toll is as high as 89. Regardless of the number, every life lost in Syria’s inexorable march to democracy is one too many.

The American Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton, has said that concerted efforts are being made to “peel away support from President al-Assad”, and maintained that this was an illegitimate regime that is “going to fall”.

Many analysts, yours truly included, see the inability of the international community (read NATO et al.) to intervene in Syria (like Libya) as a reflection of the lack of a concerted ‘rebel alliance’ (Star Wars pun intended), or alternative government that could step into the certain power vacuum that would result from the removal of President al-Assad and his regime.

As Clinton put it, the current Syrian National Council simply is not the “united opposition” that could be found in Libya.

Rebels from the ‘Free Syrian Army’ are holding out in Baba Amr, yet another group that seeks to oust the embattled President.

The pressing question nobody seems to be able to answer remains; will these groups push their egos aside long enough to oust the President?

    “There's every possibility Syria could descend into civil war.”

- United States Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton