Newest threat to Libyan stability

More than two months after the death of Colonel Muammar Gaddafi and nearly five after he was ousted from power, Libya’s new government has had problems with stability. That being said, observers had foreseen imminent doom for Libya, so considering that, Libya certainly feels calmer and less volatile than was predicted.

However, a serious threat has emerged to Libyan security. #TNREgirl promptly has a few suggestions; Gaddafi loyalists? Certainly not. How about terrorists? Close, but no cigar.

It’s the glorious ex-rebels that freed Libya from tyranny. Consider the Libyan airport, a lifeline for the country in the post-Gaddafi era. It’s controlled by a militia group from Zintan that captured the airport. Local militias, or the ‘thwar’, as they are known locally, could pose a large challenge to the new Libyan government. They control significant areas of the country, including the airport, some government buildings, power plants; in short, key areas for the government. They refuse to relinquish control, citing their role as ‘guardians of the revolution’. Others don’t want to work with remnants of the Gaddafi regime. Regardless of their motivations, they pose a serious threat to Libya’s transition from civil war to a stable democracy.

The new government faces monumental issues in integrating these various armed groups into a national army and police. They have named a nominal commander, Youssef Mangoush, but no force, prima facie, exists. Coming back to the group that controls the airport, the Zintanis, one finds that they wield a surprising amount of influence for a small group; they captured Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, and compounded by the fact that they control Tripoli’s international airport, one can begin to understand how in a primarily tribal-dominated societal structure, their victories have bought them political power.

Four days ago, militias from Tripoli and Misrata clashed in the capital, resulting in the death of four people. Mustafa Abdel-Jalil, the chairman of Libya's National Transitional Council, has now warned of the possibility of a "civil war", highlighting a growing concern amongst observers of the desperately volatile situation that Libya now finds itself in.

Disarming and persuading them to integrate within national forces is now arguably the greatest challenge facing this fledgling government as it tries to establish security before elections planned later this year. Furthermore, two eastern militias have already refused to serve under Commander-in-chief Mangoush, citing his time as a colonel in Gaddafi’s army.

Colonel Gaddafi deliberately kept his army weak for fear of a coup, so the new Libya must start afresh to build a force it can be proud of. It will be an uphill battle, but one to watch. The possibility of militarization combined with radicalization of the nation is indeed real, and a worrying threat. 

Hope certainly does exist; on Saturday, Libya’s 1.2 million children returned to school, to study a revamped curriculum with a strong democratic focus.

“This suggests or confirms just how bad and how dire the critical situation is regarding the militias."

-David Schenker, director of the Program on Arab Politics at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy on Youssef Mangoush's appointment