Political Upheaval in Pakistan

Pakistan is moving inevitably towards critical mass. In my earlier post, Pakistan's[self-appointed] savior, I considered the possibility of an Army coup.

“Challenging the Pakistani army’s traditional status quo may prove to have several outcomes. Will the army take its time-honoured, repeatedly-tested and exemplarily selfless [read treasonous] step, a coup d'état?”

-situationaware.blogspot.com

That possibility is now very close to becoming a reality. Pakistan’s president and prime minister called a parliamentary session yesterday to seek support against challenges from the country’s Supreme Court and its politically powerful army, a presidential spokesman said.

This was after high court judges said Prime Minister Gilani had violated his oath of office by refusing the court’s order to pursue corruption charges against President Zardari and other officials. A separate judicial commission is investigating whether Zardari and his ambassador to the U.S. authorized a memo in May that sought American pressure against a possible military coup.

Pakistan's military warned on Wednesday of "grievous consequences" for the country after the prime minister accused the army chief of violating the constitution, adding to a sense of crisis that many observers, including this blogger, believe could end in the ouster of the government.

Around the same time, Defense Secretary Lt. Gen. Naeem Khalid Lodhi was fired because of "misconduct" relating to his role in submitting the statements to the court, according to a government official who didn't give his name because of the sensitivity of the situation.

In a sort of retaliatory measure, the Pakistan Army has immediately changed commander of the Triple One (111) Brigade. Now, this is a move that has political commentators abuzz, because the 111 Brigade has been instrumental in coups in the past. Furthermore, Brigadier Sarfarza Ali, the new commander, is known for his strong ties to the current Army chief. Whether an indication of the Army chief’s desire to push for a coup, or to surround himself with like-minded soldiers, this certainly is an interesting turn of events.

On the other hand, Tehreek-e-Insaf chairman Imran Khan on Thursday slammed the Pakistani government for the chaos in the country and ruled out supporting martial law. Calling on Pakistan President Asif Ali Zardari and Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani to resign, Khan said that early elections were the only way out of the country's current crisis. This blogger certainly hopes that these fresh elections will be called, but will the army accept it? Khan made it clear that the people of Pakistan will not accept a coup, echoing the sentiments of other prominent Pakistanis, both in the political sphere and outside of it. Khan also accused the present Pakistan government for affecting democracy in the worst possible fashion, saying further that Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani was a puppet of President Zardari.

In other news, an American drone strike killed four Islamist militants in Pakistan, the first such attack since errant U.S airstrikes in November killed two dozen Pakistan troops and pushed strained ties between the two nations close to collapse, Pakistani intelligence officials said Wednesday. The late-night missile launch broke the longest pause between strikes since the drone program began in earnest in 2009. Is the US exacerbating an already tense situation?

Political upheaval threatens to complicate U.S. plans to bolster security in the region as it withdraws troops from neighboring Afghanistan. It may be in the US’s best interests to avoid further drone attacks.

This recent political tension may also stall efforts to revive Pakistan’s economy that grew just 2.4 percent in the year ended June 30, one of its slowest expansions in a decade.

The Pakistani media also issued vehement calls to the Army, saying that a coup would not be appreciated by the people of Pakistan. 

Here’s to hoping that they listen.

“Pakistan is 173 million people, 100 nuclear weapons, an army bigger than the U.S. Army, and al-Qaeda headquarters sitting right there in the two-thirds of the country that the government doesn’t control. The Pakistani military and police and intelligence service don’t follow the civilian government; they are essentially a rogue state within a state.”

-David Kilcullen