Somalia- failed state, terrorist haven or beacon of hope? Part 1

Let’s talk Somalia. It’s been in the news recently, of course, with the stunning U.S. raid in which a Navy Seals team parachuted into Somalia to rescue to hostages; an American woman and a Danish man, drawing parallels to the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. More on that later.

In Part 1 of my series on Somalia, we’ll be looking at general conceptions, along with the militant group, al-Shabab.

When we think Somalia today, we’re thinking refugees, war and pirates that terrorize the Gulf of Aden. Is that an entirely correct representative view? One certainly might be fooled into thinking so with the current media coverage. 

That being said, Somalia’s northern coastline is essentially entirely controlled by the pirates. The Islamist militant group, al-Shabab (a former radical youth resistance wing of the now-defunct Union of Islamic Courts), controls much of the centre and the south, along with Somalia’s second-largest city, Kismayo. It has pledged support for al-Qaeda and shelters its operatives.

However, this doesn’t reflect the wave of optimism that has recently flooded the capital, Mogadishu. Following a concerted effort by 9000 African Union troops, al-Shabab announced a ‘tactical withdrawal’ from the capital, and for the first time in months, the local beach is packed, and the basketball stadium is filled to the rafters. Aid workers estimate that over 300,000 people have returned to their lives there. A pincer movement employed by Ethiopian and Kenyan troops has also played a large part in damaging al-Shabab’s effectiveness, though bombings still continue. A UN official estimates that about nine bombings occur daily.

Observers have predicted that al-Shabab will increasingly switch to guerrilla warfare and suicide bombings over the coming months to counter the superior firepower of the AU forces. 

With the U.S. raid, we see an indication of several things. Firstly, (though yours truly did not need to be persuaded) it highlights the utter lack of proficiency of the government armed forces. Notice that whenever I or anybody else refers to victories in Somali, it’s always AU or foreign forces; never Somali. Secondly, and this is far more interesting, we see a United States under Obama, that is not afraid to use the dangerous end of an MP5 instead of the diplomatic corps. 

In the next post, we’ll look at a new EU initiative to train the Somali Army; albeit outside Somalia, and the political factions that wreak havoc on the country; and that’s just the current government.

“This is a moment of fresh opportunities”

-UN Secretary-General Ban ki-Moon in Mogadishu, somewhere in between his plane landing and the couple of hours till he left.